Sabtu, 08 Desember 2007

Using Candlesticks to Identify Reversals

What are candlesticks?

Candlestick charts convey information pertaining to price action, or the movement of a currency pair’s price over the specified amount of time. Each candlestick contains four attributes:
· the opening price of the currency pair at the time the candle opened
· the closing price · the high of the time frame
· the low of the time frame
On a daily chart, each candle represents a 24 hour period; on an hourly chart each candle represents an hour, and so on. A visual analysis of a candlestick is as follows:


Price Channels

Support and Resistance do not have to be horizontal lines, and often in a market that is moving higher or lower, trend lines effectively connect the high points or the low points to create a price channel that acts similarly to a horizontal range. Support and resistance levels function in the same manner in a trending market as in a rangebound one. However the line that is following the trend--support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend) should be considered by far the stronger of the two. Only when there is a trade with minimal risk involved should you enter a position based only on the resistance line above the price in an uptrend.



The same trend lines can be drawn in a bear market where the price is continuously moving lower.


There is no exact formula for drawing such lines. Some traders prefer to connect only the bodies of the candles and to exclude the high and low points outside of the open and close, but that is not a requirement. If the line does not look valid to you, chances are it is not relevant, because other traders are using the same charts.

Risk-Reward Ratios

Is the estimated potential loss of a trade (risk) to the estimated potential gain (reward). Before entering into any trade, good traders first think about how much risk to take on any particular trade. We try to apply the 1:3 risk/ reward, for example if your average gain on winning trades is $1000 and you have consistently risked $300 per trade then your risk-reward ratio would be 3.3 to 1 (i.e. $1000 / $300). Since no one can win on every trade therefore your profits would cover your losses and at the end of the day you will be a winner.

Support and Resistance in Momentum Markets

Another way to use support and resistance is to trade outside of the range; in other words, to anticipate a breakout. This involves placing orders to buy above resistance and to sell below support. The rationale is that the market will gain momentum once it breaks out of the range, and thus by placing orders just below/above support/resistance, traders will be able to make big gains when the market moves out of the range. Momentum trading is a bit counter-intuitive, as it involves buying at a higher price and selling at a lower price.

Below is a chart that illustrates the concept of momentum trading. Note how the pair accelerates once it breaks out of a narrow range: